France’s demographic report for 2025, published by the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) on January 13, shows for the first time a negative natural balance. The number of deaths, which has increased significantly, exceeded the number of births, which has notably fallen due to a decline in women’s fertility. This publication has led to yet another wave of declinist rhetoric and calls for a “demographic rearmament,” as phrased by President Emmanuel Macron in 2024.
Yet this is actually good news for the planet and for the environment, and not necessarily as negative for France, either, as some might claim: It can help address some of the most serious difficulties the country currently faces, even if it creates others as well.
This trend is not unique to France: Rather, the previous situation was an exception, with an unusually high fertility rate among women in France. That same trend can be observed among all our European neighbors. Fertility rates in the United States are now the same as in France, and population decline is even more pronounced in China, South Korea and Japan. In fact, this global trend is visible everywhere except sub-Saharan Africa for now, though even there, changes are happening rapidly.
Major trends
This means that arguments highlighting the supposed loss of economic competitiveness or political influence due to a shrinking population are irrelevant; even China, the world’s rising superpower, should in theory be much more affected by its demographic shift than France or Europe in the coming decades.
Why are fewer babies being born? There are multiple reasons, including difficulties in finding housing; balancing raising young children with a professional career; a desire to enjoy more personal time; anxiety about the country and the planet’s future – even if it is impossible to quantify each factor precisely. It is also well known that, everywhere, even the most ambitious pro-natalist policies have only a marginal effect on these deep-seated trends.
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