US economic performance has been very good overall under Joe Biden’s presidency. The unemployment rate fell from 6.4% in January 2021 when he was inaugurated, to 4.1% in October 2024. GDP growth was quite strong: 5.8% in 2021, 1.9% in 2022, 2.5% in 2023, and 2.8% in the third quarter of 2024. Finally, the Federal Reserve managed to bring inflation down considerably, from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 to 2.4% in September 2024, without pushing unemployment back up.
The purchasing power of American employees also increased during this period. Real wages – the difference between wage growth and consumer price growth – rose by 2% year-on-year in January 2021, fell by 0.8% in January 2023, rose by 2.9% in January 2024, and then by 4% in September 2024: a clear progression for American employees. This performance should have benefited Kamala Harris and won her the US presidency.
So why did Donald Trump achieve such a clear-cut victory? Polls show that Americans blamed Democrats for their immigration policies and high inflation. From early 2021 to fall 2024, the proportion of foreign-born Americans rose from 12.7% to 14.4%. In 2023, 3.2 million illegal migrant entries were also recorded. Only 20% of these immigrants were sent back to their countries of origin. Biden only reacted in June 2024, with an executive order preventing access to the asylum system, when the number of illegal immigrants was too high. American public opinion criticized the Democratic administration for its laxity.
Inflation more keenly felt by low-income earners
Inflation played a considerable role in Trump’s campaign, and its perception can be very different from reality. A survey by the University of Michigan shows that perceived inflation over the last 12 months was still 6%, whereas it was only 3% at the beginning of 2024. It points out that bad news on this subject affects Americans much more than good news. It is also felt more by those with lower incomes than those with higher incomes.
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