“This entire operation (…) really has to be completed with the elimination of Fordo.” As Yechiel Leiter, Israel’s ambassador to the US, summed it up on Fox News on Friday, June 13, the goal of the attack launched against Iran, to put an end to its nuclear program, will only be achieved with the destruction of the uranium enrichment site, located 150 kilometers South of Tehran.
The Israeli military claims to have struck the underground section of Natanz – the other Iranian uranium enrichment hub – which was confirmed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), though the extent of the damage was not specified. However, according to the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, which said it had informed the IAEA, Fordo, considered the crown jewel of Iran’s nuclear program and protected as such, suffered only superficial damage from the strikes.
Buried into the side of a mountain beneath 80 to 90 meters of rock and concrete, the site is out of reach of conventional weapons available to Israeli forces, explained Justin Bronk, a defense systems expert and researcher at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a British think tank. The penetrating bombs in Israel’s arsenal “might be able to collapse entrance and ventilation passages, only the United States Air Force has a conventional weapon capable of breaching the main facility from the air,” he said, referring to the “Massive Ordnance Penetrator GBU-57/B.”
This precision-guided bomb weighs 13,600 kilograms, including a 2,700-kilogram warhead, and can burrow 60 meters underground before detonating, according to the US Air Force, which will not specify the types of materials it can penetrate. According to Bronk, “at least two weapons dropped sequentially into the same breaching aim point are likely to be required to reach and destroy the main centrifuge facilities at Fordo.”
The GBU-57 was designed “specifically for Fordo,” said Ali Vaez, director of Iran research at the International Crisis Group, recalling that the Pentagon acknowledged in 2012 that the “bunker busters” it then possessed could not reach the site’s underground facilities. The new version, presented in 2013 to Israeli political and military officials, according to the Wall Street Journal, was equipped with adjustable fuses to maximize penetration capabilities, more precise guidance systems and devices to evade Iranian air defenses.
‘Defensive posture’
Several types of heavy American bombers, including the B-52, are capable of carrying the GBU-57, but only the B-2 is authorized to do so. The stealth aircraft, which has a range of 11,000 kilometers, can carry two bombs, according to the US Air Force. “With the aid of aerial refueling [it] could even mount attacks on Fordow and other Iranian hardened targets from their home base in Missouri,” noted Bronk.
The use of this weapon would therefore require direct US participation in Israeli operations. Donald Trump did not rule this out on Sunday, but it is not currently on the agenda. The White House reiterated on Tuesday that US forces in the region remained in a “defensive posture.” However, according to the flight tracking website AirNav Radar, about 30 refueling aircraft left the US on Sunday to land at, among other locations, Ramstein Air Base in Germany, as well as in the United Kingdom, Estonia and Greece. “It is a clear signal of strategic readiness,” showing that “the US is positioning itself for rapid escalation,” said Eric Schouten, director general of the intelligence firm Dyami Security Intelligence, told Reuters.
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As for the effectiveness of potentially using one or more GBU-57s, Vaez expressed doubt. American bunker-busting weapons were used in Afghanistan and Yemen, the researcher recalled, but “in both cases, the bomb did not help the US achieve its strategic objectives.” Even if the US decided to use them, “it would be difficult for them to destroy the Fordo site,” according to Kelsey Davenport of the Arms Control Association. “Even if they manage to do so, the destruction of Fordo “will not put an end to Iran’s uranium enrichment program or resolve the risk of Tehran developing nuclear weapons. Iran gained valuable knowledge over the past several years about uranium enrichment and it may have stashed centrifuges at an undeclared site,” she said. “Strikes may set Iran back, but it is not a long-term solution to preventing a nuclear-armed Iran.”
