Can the Islamic Republic survive for long following the failure of its nuclear program? In the aftermath of the strikes carried out in Iran by Israel and the US between June 12 and June 24, the Tehran theocracy is surveying the damage. It is weaker than ever – both domestically and internationally. Whatever its ultimate purpose may have been, the nuclear program was a cornerstone of the Islamic Republic’s stature, forming part of its very identity.
It was certainly not “obliterated,” as Donald Trump claimed. But at the very least, it was delayed, diminished and amputated. For Iranians, it also brought war to their own soil – for the first time since Saddam Hussein’s Iraq launched its assault on the Islamic Republic in 1980.
Tehran swore that its nuclear program had no military objective. But no one enriches 400 kg of uranium to 60% unless they intend, one day, to be able to assemble a bomb. And simply maintaining ambiguity – by hiding sites and refusing certain UN inspections – was a way of deliberately sowing doubt, a way of asserting that “soon, if we decide, we will be able to join the nuclear club.”
This positioning was an integral part of the Iranian theocracy. It was not only a scientific ambition; it was a political symbol. Their nuclear program, combined with combative language and calls for Israel’s elimination, symbolized the regime’s resistance to the West. It was both a sign of power and a lever of influence – one of the tools of leadership that the Iran of the ayatollahs, reviving an old Persian trope, intended to exercise over the region – and even beyond.
The project completed an ideological arsenal meant to place the Islamic Republic at the forefront of the global struggle against “Western hegemony.” With support from China and Russia – neither particularly concerned about nuclear proliferation – Iran in 2024 joined the group of emerging economies known as the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Indonesia and Ethiopia).
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