Donald Trump’s return to power initially left Japanese leaders largely unfazed. At first, Washington sought to reassure them; US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth described the archipelago as an “indispensable partner” of the US in April.
But such assurances have not ruled out the unpredictability of Trump’s decisions − his tendency to view alliances as constraints, to conflate economic and strategic interests and to make demands that Tokyo considers unacceptable. These demands included requiring Japan to increase military spending from 2% of GDP (in 2027) to 3.5%, or even 5%, to bring it in line with European levels. Japan is realizing that it will be increasingly difficult to pursue a foreign policy based on respect for international law and multilateralism.
Japan diverged from the positions of Germany, France and the United Kingdom by condemning Israel’s attack on Iran, which it judged “unacceptable while negotiations are ongoing,” Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said on June 13. However, he was more circumspect regarding the US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites on June 21, calling on both sides to resume dialogue and later stating that he “understood the need” to halt Iran’s nuclear ambitions. “We cannot openly say that we disapprove of US’ actions,” a source close to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs told the daily Asahi.
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