Everything rests on a single man, confident in his own experience, and dismissive of experts, consultation with allies and even members of his own administration. An American president, facing history, surrounded by loyalists, torn between asserting the nation’s power, regardless of the consequences, and upholding his pledge to avoid disastrous military adventures. This was the position Donald Trump finds himself in, facing a choice that could define his second term and destabilize the Middle East for years to come. Should the United States support Israel in destroying Iran’s nuclear program facilities, or even aim for regime change in Tehran? That prospect has increasingly grown, as Israel’s military successes fueled division and anxiety even within Trump’s MAGA movement.

“We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran,” Trump wrote Tuesday morning, the “we” suggesting a joint production. “Unconditional surrender,” he later demanded from Tehran on his social network Truth Social, clarifying that the life of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, was “at least for now” not at risk. His escalating rhetoric was all the more striking as it came even before the midday meeting of the National Security Council, when the commander-in-chief was expected to hear the top leaders of the military, intelligence services and diplomats before making his decision.

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