This is not just a decline: It is a collapse. Immigration to the United States, which stood at 2.7 million in 2024, dropped by half in 2025 and if the trend continues, is expected to reach around 320,000 in 2026, according to a note from the Census Bureau dated January 27. Normally, the country would be expected to panic, deprived of its cheap labor supply and ambitious young people seeking the American dream. Not the Trump administration, which is pleased to hide its weak job creation numbers. Nor the “tech bros,” who are predicting the end of work as we know it, thanks to artificial intelligence and robots – at least for the less-skilled jobs. And yet, they are struggling to envision what such a world would look like.
“I do think these trends really do make it hard to imagine why we should have large-scale immigration unless you have a very specialized skill,” said Alex Karp, the CEO of Palantir, at the Davos Forum in Switzerland. Cashiers, accountants, forklift operators, notary clerks, journalists – almost every job is under threat.
Elon Musk has presented one of the most extreme visions of the future. “My prediction is that work will be optional. It’ll be like playing sports or a video game or something like that,” Musk said. “If you want to work, [it’s] the same way you can go to the store and just buy some vegetables, or you can grow vegetables in your backyard,” said the entrepreneur in autumn 2025, as he was transforming his California Tesla factory into a humanoid-making facility. Bill Gates has put it more soberly, but he does foresee an even more staggering revolution than that brought about by the personal computer. “AI capabilities will allow us to make far more goods and services with less labor,” wrote the Microsoft co-founder on his blog in January.
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